Haitong Securities released a research report saying that from January to September 2024, 119.1GW of new domestic wind power bids were tendered, a year-on-year increase of +93.0%. Among them, 111.5GW onshore, +100.5% year-on-year, and 7.6GW offshore, +24.6% year-on-year. The bidding for wind turbines is still strong, and the demand continues to be high. It is estimated that in 2024/2025, the domestic onshore wind power installed capacity will be 80/110GW, a year-on-year increase of +10.8%/+37.5%, and the offshore wind power installed capacity will be 7.5/12GW, a year-on-year increase of +4.2%/+60%, and the growth rate of wind power installed capacity will further increase in 25 years.

In August 2024, the price of onshore wind turbines may have bottomed out, but the volume still grows, and the proportion of sea breeze + overseas is expected to increase, and the profitability of the land wind sector is expected to continue to recover. Due to the decline in the price of wind power steel raw materials compared with the beginning of the year, the profitability of Q4 forging and castings, bearings and other companies is expected to increase year-on-year.

In terms of sea breeze, Guangdong, Fujian and other places have launched new competitions since the second half of 23. At present, the owner has not yet tendered for wind turbines, and there are more than 40GW of reserve offshore wind projects, so there are still more offshore offshore wind projects in the early stage of the "15th Five-Year Plan", and there is a strong growth sustainability. In 2020-23, the auction volume of European sea breeze will be 0.76GW, 1.96GW, 9.53GW, and 13.57GW, respectively, and 4C offshore predicts that 40GW of European sea breeze (47.5GW global sea breeze) will be auctioned in 2024, and the auction volume of sea breeze will also increase significantly in 24. Haitong Securities believes that with the global installed capacity of sea wind, the gross profit margin of pile foundation and submarine cable related links is expected to be significantly repaired with the boost of demand and capacity utilization and the improvement of product structure.

In 2024Q3, the performance of wind turbines, gearboxes, submarine cables, transformers, and power stations increased year-on-year

In 2024Q3, the net profit attributable to the parent company of the wind turbine segment increased the most year-on-year, mainly due to the low base of Goldwind in 23Q3. Specifically, in terms of revenue, except for towers, Q3 revenue in other links increased year-on-year, which is basically consistent with the growth rate of wind power installations from January to September; The inconsistent revenue growth in other links is related to the different dilution of consumption and the degree of price competition brought about by large-scale, as well as whether there are other non-wind power businesses.

From the perspective of gross profit margin, in 24Q3, only the gross profit margin of transformers and power stations increased year-on-year, and other links decreased year-on-year, mainly due to the lower than expected installed demand in the domestic wind power market, resulting in price competition and low capacity utilization. In terms of expense ratio, the expense rate of wind turbines, blades, submarine cables, gearboxes, and power stations decreased year-on-year, and other links increased year-on-year. In terms of net profit margin, the net profit margin of wind turbines, submarine cables, gearboxes, transformers, and power stations increased year-on-year.

To sum up, in addition to the growth of revenue in other links other than towers, the gross profit margin of transformers and power stations has increased, and the net profit attributable to the parent company has increased; The gross profit margin of gearboxes, submarine cables, and wind turbines declined, and the expense ratio also decreased, so that the net profit margin increased, and the net profit attributable to the parent company maintained positive growth.

In 2024Q3, the number of companies with positive year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to the parent company has increased significantly compared with Q2, and the gross profit margin of the bearing link has improved significantly

Among the specific companies, the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company in the third quarter was more prominent, including Goldwind Technology (+4195.25%), Times New Materials (+15.72%), ZWZ (+57.44%), Guangda Special Materials (+52.03%), Haili Wind Power (+70.19%), Dongfang Cable (+40.28%), Hangzhou Tooth Progress (+35.80%), Jinpan Technology (+27.54%), and Jiangsu Xinneng (+215.88%). The year-on-year increase in gross profit margin includes Electric Wind Power (+11.07pct), Yunda Co., Ltd. (+2.44pct), Tianshun Wind Energy (+2.50pct), Haili Wind Power (+1.58pct), Daikin Heavy Industries (+0.64pct), ZWZ (+4.50pct), Dada Special Materials (+3.55pct), Dongfang Cable (+0.85pct), Jinpan Technology (+2.74pct), Silver Star Energy (+1.55pct), and Three Gorges Energy (+). 1.89 pct), Jiangsu Xinneng (+11.18 pct).

It is recommended to pay attention

Dongfang Cable (603606.SH), Zhongtian Technology (600522.SH), Daikin Heavy Industries (002487.SZ), Hengtong Optoelectronics (600487.SH), Mingyang Electric (301291.SZ), Mingyang Intelligent (601615.SH), Jinpan Technology (688676.SH), Riyue (603218.SH), Goldwind Technology (002202.SZ), Taisheng Wind Energy (300129.SZ), Haili Wind Power (301155.SZ), Yunda (300772.SZ), Tianshun Wind Energy (002531.SZ), Jinlei (300443.SZ), Tianneng Heavy Industry (300569.SZ), Wuzhou Xinchun (603667.SH), Changsheng Bearing (300718.SZ), Pangu Intelligent (301456.SZ), Times New Materials (600458.SH), Sinoma Technology (002080.SZ), Sany Renewable Energy ( 688349.SH), Schunk Technology (301548.SZ).

Risk Warning

the risk of industry policy fluctuations; the risk of increased competition; the risk that the global offshore wind installation is less than expected; international trade friction risk; Commodity raw material price fluctuation risk.